籌碼發散的股票是長空的最佳標的嗎?

昨天寫了我挑空單的邏輯，我頗敬重的一位江湖大佬看到了，他提了一個很有趣的觀點~ 長空的股票只要看籌碼就夠了，其他都不要看，會被誤導。他說只要籌碼是從大股東，大戶及法人手中一直往市場上倒，而承接的都是散戶，這種股票就算在多頭市場也很難漲，但如果你還要去考慮基本面技術面什麼的，反而會因為噪音太多而迷失方向。為了印證他的觀察，以下是我的實驗過程。

根據他的說法，我列出作空的一些條件

1.買進的分公司家數遠多於賣出的分公司家數

2.法人賣超

3.主力賣超

4.千張大戶人數及張數在減少

5.融資餘額在增加

6.借券賣出餘額張數在增加

7.關鍵券商賣超

8.散戶持股人數及張數在增加

9.內部人持股比例在減少

10.散戶買張在增加

11.地緣券商賣超

12.綜合前十大券商賣超

然後我寫了一個選股腳本，來設定每天符合這些條件達到一定的比例作為標準，然後再挑出最近幾天都有符合此標準的股票。

我寫的腳本如下:

複製
1value1=GetField("法人買賣超張數","D");
2value2=GetField("買家數","D");
3value3=GetField("賣家數","D");
4value4=GetField("主力買賣超張數","D");
5value5=GetField("融資餘額張數","D");
6value6=GetField("借券餘額張數","D");
7value7=GetField("關鍵券商買賣超張數","D");
8value8=GetField("散戶買張","D");
9value9=GetField("地緣券商買賣超張數","D");
10value10=GetField("綜合前十大券商買賣超張數","D");
11var:count(0);
12count=0;
13if value1<0 then count=count+1;
14if value2>value3+30 then count=count+1;
15if value4<0 then count=count+1;
16if GetField("散戶持股張數","W",param := 50) >GetField("散戶持股張數","W",param := 50)[1] then count=count+1;
17if GetField("散戶持股人數","W",param := 50) >GetField("散戶持股人數","W",param := 50)[1] then count=count+1;
18if GetField("大戶持股張數","W",param := 400)<GetField("大戶持股張數","W",param := 400)[1] then count=count+1;
19if GetField("大戶持股人數","W",param := 400) <GetField("大戶持股人數","W",param := 400)[1] then count=count+1;
20if value5>value5[1] then count=count+1;
21if value6>value6[1] then count=count+1;
22if value7<0 then count=count+1;
23if GetField("內部人持股比例","M")< GetField("內部人持股比例","M")[1] then count=count+1;
24if value8>value8[1] then count=count+1;
25if value9<0 then count=count+1;
26if value10<0 then count=count+1;
27input:n(10,"每日符合籌碼發散的條件數");
28input:days(5,"計算天數");
29if countif(count>=n,days)>=days*0.6 then ret=1;
value1=GetField("法人買賣超張數","D");
value2=GetField("買家數","D");
value3=GetField("賣家數","D");
value4=GetField("主力買賣超張數","D");
value5=GetField("融資餘額張數","D");
value6=GetField("借券餘額張數","D");
value7=GetField("關鍵券商買賣超張數","D");
value8=GetField("散戶買張","D");
value9=GetField("地緣券商買賣超張數","D");
value10=GetField("綜合前十大券商買賣超張數","D");
var:count(0);
count=0;
if value1<0 then count=count+1;
if value2>value3+30 then count=count+1;
if value4<0 then count=count+1;
if GetField("散戶持股張數","W",param := 50) >GetField("散戶持股張數","W",param := 50)[1] then count=count+1;
if GetField("散戶持股人數","W",param := 50) >GetField("散戶持股人數","W",param := 50)[1] then count=count+1;
if GetField("大戶持股張數","W",param := 400)<GetField("大戶持股張數","W",param := 400)[1] then count=count+1;
if GetField("大戶持股人數","W",param := 400) <GetField("大戶持股人數","W",param := 400)[1] then count=count+1;
if value5>value5[1] then count=count+1;
if value6>value6[1] then count=count+1;
if value7<0 then count=count+1;
if GetField("內部人持股比例","M")< GetField("內部人持股比例","M")[1] then count=count+1;
if value8>value8[1] then count=count+1;
if value9<0 then count=count+1;
if value10<0 then count=count+1;
input:n(10,"每日符合籌碼發散的條件數");
input:days(5,"計算天數");
if countif(count>=n,days)>=days*0.6 then ret=1;

以下是最近六個月及最近三個月的回測報告

對照下來，空頭市場如果單純使用籌碼發散這樣的精神去設定作空策略，確實是有效的策略。不過在多頭市場，一樣是會輸錢的。