在研判大盤是否築底時,我常看的是,具指標意義的個股,有多少已有開始築底的跡象,例如股價已符合脫離近期最低點達一成以上之類的條件。
根據這樣的思維,我寫了一個指標股築底指標,這個指標的腳本如下
array:lead[100](0); lead[1]=GetSymbolField("1102.tw","收盤價","D");//台泥 lead[2]=GetSymbolField("2317.tw","收盤價","D");//鴻海 lead[3]=GetSymbolField("1216.tw","收盤價","D");//統一 lead[4]=GetSymbolField("1301.tw","收盤價","D");//台塑 lead[5]=GetSymbolField("1304.tw","收盤價","D");//台聚 lead[6]=GetSymbolField("1312.tw","收盤價","D");//國喬 lead[7]=GetSymbolField("1326.tw","收盤價","D");//台化 lead[8]=GetSymbolField("1455.tw","收盤價","D");//集盛 lead[9]=GetSymbolField("1476.tw","收盤價","D");//儒鴻 lead[10]=GetSymbolField("1477.tw","收盤價","D");//聚陽 lead[11]=GetSymbolField("1513.tw","收盤價","D");//中興電 lead[12]=GetSymbolField("1515.tw","收盤價","D");//力山 lead[13]=GetSymbolField("1521.tw","收盤價","D");//大億 lead[14]=GetSymbolField("1527.tw","收盤價","D");//鑽全 lead[15]=GetSymbolField("1560.tw","收盤價","D");//中砂 lead[16]=GetSymbolField("1565.tw","收盤價","D");//精華 lead[17]=GetSymbolField("1582.tw","收盤價","D");//信錦 lead[18]=GetSymbolField("1605.tw","收盤價","D");//華新 lead[19]=GetSymbolField("1717.tw","收盤價","D");//長興 lead[20]=GetSymbolField("1723.tw","收盤價","D");//中碳 lead[21]=GetSymbolField("1726.tw","收盤價","D");//永記 lead[22]=GetSymbolField("1736.tw","收盤價","D");//喬山 lead[23]=GetSymbolField("1773.tw","收盤價","D");//勝一 lead[24]=GetSymbolField("1795.tw","收盤價","D");//美時 lead[25]=GetSymbolField("1907.tw","收盤價","D");//永豊餘 lead[26]=GetSymbolField("2002.tw","收盤價","D");//中鋼 lead[27]=GetSymbolField("2006.tw","收盤價","D");//東鋼 lead[28]=GetSymbolField("2015.tw","收盤價","D");//豊興 lead[29]=GetSymbolField("2029.tw","收盤價","D");//盛餘 lead[30]=GetSymbolField("2027.tw","收盤價","D");//大成鋼 lead[31]=GetSymbolField("2031.tw","收盤價","D");//新光鋼 lead[32]=GetSymbolField("2049.tw","收盤價","D");//上銀 lead[33]=GetSymbolField("2059.tw","收盤價","D");//川湖 lead[34]=GetSymbolField("2103.tw","收盤價","D");//台橡 lead[35]=GetSymbolField("2105.tw","收盤價","D");//正新 lead[36]=GetSymbolField("2204.tw","收盤價","D");//中華車 lead[37]=GetSymbolField("2207.tw","收盤價","D");//和泰車 lead[38]=GetSymbolField("2231.tw","收盤價","D");//為升 lead[39]=GetSymbolField("2233.tw","收盤價","D");//宇隆 lead[40]=GetSymbolField("2301.tw","收盤價","D");//光寶 lead[41]=GetSymbolField("2303.tw","收盤價","D");//聯電 lead[42]=GetSymbolField("2308.tw","收盤價","D");//台達電 lead[43]=GetSymbolField("2313.tw","收盤價","D");//華通 lead[44]=GetSymbolField("2324.tw","收盤價","D");//仁寶 lead[45]=GetSymbolField("2327.tw","收盤價","D");//國巨 lead[46]=GetSymbolField("2330.tw","收盤價","D");//台積電 lead[47]=GetSymbolField("2337.tw","收盤價","D");//旺宏 lead[48]=GetSymbolField("2344.tw","收盤價","D");//華邦電 lead[49]=GetSymbolField("2345.tw","收盤價","D");//智邦 lead[50]=GetSymbolField("2347.tw","收盤價","D");//聯強 lead[51]=GetSymbolField("2352.tw","收盤價","D");//佳世達 lead[52]=GetSymbolField("2353.tw","收盤價","D");//宏碁 lead[53]=GetSymbolField("2354.tw","收盤價","D");//鴻準 lead[54]=GetSymbolField("2357.tw","收盤價","D");//華碩 lead[55]=GetSymbolField("2368.tw","收盤價","D");//金像電 lead[56]=GetSymbolField("2376.tw","收盤價","D");//技嘉 lead[57]=GetSymbolField("2377.tw","收盤價","D");//微星 lead[58]=GetSymbolField("2379.tw","收盤價","D");//瑞昱 lead[59]=GetSymbolField("2382.tw","收盤價","D");//廣達 lead[60]=GetSymbolField("2383.tw","收盤價","D");//台光電 lead[61]=GetSymbolField("2385.tw","收盤價","D");//群光 lead[62]=GetSymbolField("2393.tw","收盤價","D");//億光 lead[63]=GetSymbolField("2395.tw","收盤價","D");//研華 lead[64]=GetSymbolField("2408.tw","收盤價","D");//南亞科 lead[65]=GetSymbolField("2409.tw","收盤價","D");//友達 lead[66]=GetSymbolField("2439.tw","收盤價","D");//美律 lead[67]=GetSymbolField("2449.tw","收盤價","D");//京元電 lead[68]=GetSymbolField("2454.tw","收盤價","D");//聯發科 lead[69]=GetSymbolField("2603.tw","收盤價","D");//長榮 lead[70]=GetSymbolField("2606.tw","收盤價","D");//裕民 lead[71]=GetSymbolField("2610.tw","收盤價","D");//華航 lead[72]=GetSymbolField("2615.tw","收盤價","D");//萬海 lead[73]=GetSymbolField("2707.tw","收盤價","D");//晶華 lead[74]=GetSymbolField("2729.tw","收盤價","D");//瓦城 lead[75]=GetSymbolField("2731.tw","收盤價","D");//雄獅 lead[76]=GetSymbolField("2912.tw","收盤價","D");//統一超 lead[77]=GetSymbolField("3008.tw","收盤價","D");//大立光 lead[78]=GetSymbolField("3034.tw","收盤價","D");//聯詠 lead[79]=GetSymbolField("3037.tw","收盤價","D");//欣興 lead[80]=GetSymbolField("3042.tw","收盤價","D");//晶技 lead[81]=GetSymbolField("3130.tw","收盤價","D");//104 lead[82]=GetSymbolField("3231.tw","收盤價","D");//緯創 lead[83]=GetSymbolField("3406.tw","收盤價","D");//玉晶光 lead[84]=GetSymbolField("3481.tw","收盤價","D");//群創 lead[85]=GetSymbolField("3576.tw","收盤價","D");//聯合再生 lead[86]=GetSymbolField("3665.tw","收盤價","D");//貿聯 lead[87]=GetSymbolField("3702.tw","收盤價","D");//大聯大 lead[88]=GetSymbolField("3707.tw","收盤價","D");//漢磊 lead[89]=GetSymbolField("3708.tw","收盤價","D");//上緯 lead[90]=GetSymbolField("3711.tw","收盤價","D");//日月光 lead[91]=GetSymbolField("3714.tw","收盤價","D");//富采 lead[92]=GetSymbolField("4438.tw","收盤價","D");//廣越 lead[93]=GetSymbolField("5434.tw","收盤價","D");//崇越 lead[94]=GetSymbolField("6269.tw","收盤價","D");//台郡 lead[95]=GetSymbolField("6285.tw","收盤價","D");//啟碁 lead[96]=GetSymbolField("6505.tw","收盤價","D");//台塑化 lead[97]=GetSymbolField("9910.tw","收盤價","D");//豊泰 lead[98]=GetSymbolField("9921.tw","收盤價","D");//巨大 lead[99]=GetSymbolField("8299.tw","收盤價","D");//群聯 lead[100]=GetSymbolField("8086.tw","收盤價","D");//宏捷科 variable:i(0),count(0); count=0; for i=1 to 100 begin if lead[i]>lowest(lead[i],10)*1.1 //收盤價比近十日低點回升一成 then count=count+1; end; plot1(100-count,"指標股築底家數"); //用100-count 代表數字愈大,愈多股票沒有比十日低點高超過一成 //數字愈小,代表愈來愈多股票比十日低點高出一成 plot2(20); plot3(35);
這個指標與加權指數的對照圖如下
為了跟加權指數作對照,所以這個指標我是用指標股數量100去減符合築底條件的股票,也就是這個數字愈高,代表愈多股票沒有比十日低點高超過一成,相反的,這指標數字愈小,代表愈多股票築底成功
根據上圖,我們可以看到,這數字在35以上時,代表有三分之一的個股距離近十日低點不到一成,指數在高點,相反的,這數字在20以下時,代表有八成的股票,股價距離十日低點已漲超過一成,如果這個情況出現在指數低點,而且指數下跌,這指標也下跌,代表盤在跌,但築底的家數變多,則是一個反轉的訊號
如下圖
但如果這數字伴著指數反彈後馬上回升,代表符合條件的股票變少,這就不算是築底的訊號,頂多是反彈
這個指標,因為我挑的這100檔指標股裡有上市較短的公司,如果各位希望看更長的數字,就需要讓指標股都上市蠻久的才可以
這點要跟大家作個說明
整理一下,截到目前為止,一共跟大家介紹了續漲股票家數,融資維持率,空方氣勢指標,庫藏股指標
加上今天的這個指標,一共有七個研判大盤落底與否的工具,大盤是否落底,大家可以搭配著這些指標,相互印證及確認,未來在盤勢如果還是詭譎多變,我會繼續跟大家介紹其他我覺得不錯用的工具,也會跟大家從其他面向,分享我研判大盤多空方向的其他類工具。